Oil prices fall 3% to 2-1/2 month lows on fresh demand concerns

By Shariq Khan

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Oil prices fell about 3% to their lowest since late August on Tuesday, as demand concerns arose from mixed Chinese data and waning investor enthusiasm on interest rate cuts.

futures fell $2.53, or 3%, to $82.65 a barrel as of 11:34 a.m. ET (1634 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $78.35 a barrel, down $2.47, or 3.1%.

Both contracts hit their lowest levels since Aug. 25, and Brent futures were set to close below $84 a barrel for the first time since Hamas Islamists’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

The premium on front-month loading Brent contracts over ones loading in six months was also at a 2-1/2-month low, indicating market participants are less concerned with current supply deficits.

“Traders will remain on high alert for signs of a wider conflict emerging in the (Middle East) region that could disrupt supplies, but it seems those fears are subsiding,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said.

On the demand side, China’s crude oil imports in October showed robust growth both year on year and month on month, but its total exports contracted at a quicker pace than expected.

“The data signals the continued decline in the Chinese economic outlook driven by deteriorating demand in the country’s largest export destination: the West,” City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta said.

Expectations of crude run reductions by China-based refiners between November and December could also limit oil demand and exacerbate price declines.

World shares, which often trade in tandem with oil, lost steam on Tuesday as investor enthusiasm about a peak in global interest rates faded. The U.S. dollar has also ticked up from recent lows, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. [MKTS/GLOB]

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday doused hopes of early rate cuts, saying the U.S. central bank may have to do more to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. Investors are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday.

“I think traders are increasingly becoming concerned about the prospect of weaker demand next year as high interest rates continue to bite,” Erlam said.

Markets are also waiting to see if Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to rein in production voluntarily beyond the end of the year in addition to a broader deal among the OPEC+ producer group.

API industry data on stockpiles is expected after 2000 GMT on Tuesday. [API/S]