The latest data on the U.S. labor market will be the investors’ main focus this week, with implications for consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, conducted on the last business day of August. The consensus forecast is for 8.8 million job openings, about even with the total from a month earlier.
Then, on Friday, the BLS will release the September jobs report. Economists are forecasting an increase of 155,000 nonfarm payrolls, versus 187,000 in August.
The unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 3.7% from 3.8%. Other economic data to watch this week will include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for September on Monday, followed by the Services equivalent on Wednesday.
There will also be a handful of notable earnings reports this week. On Tuesday,
McCormick
releases quarterly results, followed by
Conagra
Brands,
Constellation Brands,
Lamb Weston Holdings,
and
Levi Strauss
on Thursday.
Monday 10/2
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a 48 reading, slightly higher than the August figure.
The Census Bureau reports construction spending statistics for August. Total construction spending is expected to increase 0.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.98 trillion, which would be a record high.
Tuesday 10/3
McCormick reports third-quarter fiscal-2023 results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 8.8 million job openings on the last business day of August, roughly even with the July data. Job openings are down 27% from the record peak in March 2022 but remain above historical averages. At the September Federal Open Market Committee press conference Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that “although the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.”
Wednesday 10/4
ADP releases its National Employment Report for September. The consensus call is for the economy to add 140,000 private-sector jobs, following an increase of 177,000 in August. The service-providing sector continued to account for the bulk of gains in August, led by education and health services.
The ISM releases its Services
PMI
for September. Expectations are for a 53.5 reading, one point less than in August.
Thursday 10/5
Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Levi Strauss hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.
The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending September 30.
Jobless claims have fallen recently and so far have averaged 211,00 a week in September, after averaging 241,500 in the three months through August.
Friday 10/6
The BLS releases the jobs report for September. Consensus estimate is for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 155,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 3.7% from 3.8%. Jobs growth has cooled recently from the blistering pace of the past two years. The three-month average through August was a gain of roughly 150,000 compared to an average increase of 438,000 a month for the two years through May 2023.
—Dan Lam contributed to this article
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected]
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